Eurovision 2019: Semi 2 Rehearsal Stats Analysis

Event: Eurovision 2019  Category: Eurovision  Published: Thu 16th May 2019 13:21

After an exciting and rather surprising Semi 1, we now move onto the second (stronger) semi with the likely Eurovision winner. With regards to rehearsal footage, the official Eurovision channel is really only active on YouTube, so although we would normally want to analyse info from various platforms, we'll have to work with what we have.

Tabled below is a list of all the second semi contestants. It lists the YouTube Views and Likes for both the first and second rehearsals. Whether or not they're in the Top 10 for that particular metric is indicated by a green or red background colour.

Rehearsal 1: Views Rehearsal 2: Views Rehearsal 1: Likes Rehearsal 2: Likes
Russia 365,591 207,687 12,784 7,566
Sweden 95,906 93,361 3,408 3,183
The Netherlands 227,467 165,185 7,100 6,325
Armenia 126,159 102,765 3,888 4,888
Malta 158,311 148,154 4,792 4,728
Switzerland 138,691 133,066 3,892 3,983
North Macedonia 123,274 91,637 3,357 2,957
Albania 91,862 61,452 3,251 3,322
Azerbaijan 139,432 113,737 4,852 4,815
Norway 79,789 89,649 2,613 3,540
Austria 63,141 57,614 1,888 2,354
Lithuania 86,066 66,485 1,993 1,825
Ireland 75,533 68,822 2,215 2,251
Romania 85,874 68,822 3,616 3,016
Croatia 93,424 76,923 2,262 1,736
Denmark 63,977 53,154 1,777 1,474
Moldova 67,821 61,452 1,742 1,809
Latvia 54,965 56,255 1,919 2,012
All stats from 1 Day scale. Click column headers to reorder.
Semi Final 2 Analysis:

7 countries in this semi are in the Top 10 for every metric. Russia, The Netherlands, Sweden, Malta, Azerbaijan, Switzerland and Armenia. 6 countries aren't in the Top 10 for any metric. Lithuania, Austria, Denmark, Moldova, Ireland and Latvia.

  • The Netherlands enjoys some of the strongest numbers of the competition. The only others that are in the same ballpark are from Greece, Cyprus and Russia. When you consider that those 3 countries are all diaspora-heavy contenders that normally have highly inflated stats, it stands The Netherlands in very good stead.
  • Sweden - I've been surprised at the low stats from both the rehearsals. It's sometimes the case for one stat to be off, but when there are two that seem low (especially when they're both regarding the exact same performance), it does raise questions.
  • Norway - As mentioned in the previous article, it's expected that Semi 1 stats would be higher than Semi 2 as expectant fans want to see how their favourites are doing and then are satisfied enough not to need to see the second rehearsal video. Norway was the only country on the list to get a significant boost in numbers from Semi 1 to Semi 2, indicating increased interest. I believe Norway are accessibly and unique enough to qualify.
  • Armenia - I found Armenia's staging to be quite aggressive, they're also singing first which is a disadvantage. I think they probably will still qualify but 4x Qualification stats perhaps gives the impression of more confidence than there really is.
  • Albania - I'm a fan of the studio version of this song, I thought it was powerful but the staging for this entry really is quite weak. Despite 3 qualification stats, I can't help but feel this one is on knife-edge leaning more towards no-qualify.
  • Croatia - Notice how Croatia qualify on Views but not Likes? In case you can't work out why, it's the same reason people slow down to rubberneck at car crashes. They're not qualifying.
  • Austria - A lot of people have high hopes for Austria, I never liked the song as I'm not a fan of whisper-singing. However I realise I'm in the minority here and juries may well reward Paenda.

Overall, I think the stats have more-or-less come out where most of us would expect them to be (barring the Russia-diaspora effect). Compared to the previous Semi, I find this one to be much simpler to call, you have a strong number of 4x Qualifying stats and a strong number of 4x Non-Qualifying stats, both can be counted and discounted respectively. Ignoring Croatia, you're then left with North Macedonia, Romania, Albania and Norway in the 'Maybe' pile. As things currently stand, my qualifiers for this semi are: The Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Azerbaijan, Switzerland, Malta, Norway, Armenia, Romania, North Macedonia - in that order.

Remember, these are only YouTube stats so our options are limited. Our Semi 1 Rehearsal stats article was pretty good (a review of the stats will come after the contest has finished and I'll explain why), the numbers that come in on the semis themselves tend to be much more indicative of the final result. Also don't forget to take jury points into account as the stats here reflect the televote only. The above prediction is based on the stats and my viewing of the rehearsals here in Tel Aviv but as ever, take with a pinch of salt - look at the stats yourself and draw your own conclusions. The vast majority of our bets will be placed in-running.


No Comments